Thoughts

Kalshi vs Polymarket is shaping up to be a true Uber vs Lyft moment. Kalshi/Uber: better, earlier aggregation (Uber of drivers, Kalshi of markets and platforms to reach consumers to bet on those markets) Polymarket/Lyft: craftier economics (Lyft of pricing and liquidity algorithms, Polymarket using crypto for accessibility of the platform and better unit economics of trades) The primary difference seems to be that while Uber and Lyft were competing on the same strata, Polymarket and Kalshi are competing on fundamentally different ones (Poly using crypto for a fundamentally different set of tradeoffs that Kalshi cannot touch, without bringing on much more regulatory headache)

One interesting consequence of the marginal cost of creating software going to zero is that choosing what market you anchor starts to become equally, if not more important, than what product you anchor on. Most founders used to (still) think about what product they could see themselves working on for 10 years. This question may shift to what customers they want to serve for the next 10 years.

So many opportunities are based around speed. You may have the same information but if its even moments later, its value drops off a cliff (obvious example: HFT) People sometimes conflate working at the 'cutting edge' with things besides speed - like risk, thinking outside the box, a team of hyper smart people. While all these things are ingredients/characteristics of cutting edge innovation, speed is the most core requirement.

AI clones for loved ones will be a net negative for society. This category should be treated as a vice industry / restricted category. 1. individuals unable to mourn and move on from their loved ones 2. vulnerable people extorted for large sums of money for these services This is before reaching the grey area of the impacts of replacing authentic memories of your loved one with synthetic ones.

What are the qualities of gratifying work? ChatGPT's answer: 1. Purpose. You believe the work matters. 2. Mastery. Through your work, you are growing and find the work to be neither too boring nor too challenging 3. Corrolary of 3 - autonomy. You have control of how you do the work. 4. Sharing the journey with people you love? Least convinced this is necessary but it does seem to come up time and time again as an ingredient to make gratifying work happen, even if its not a quality of the work itself.